diff --git a/references/worked_example.md b/references/worked_example.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..ee278f8 --- /dev/null +++ b/references/worked_example.md @@ -0,0 +1,94 @@ +# Worked example — John Wayne Airport Shuttle (S01027 × Passent JWA001-071425) + +Use this to check your own output. If your numbers for this deal differ from these, +something was misread — usually a discount, a section header counted as a line, or a +recurring line classified as one-time. + +## Inputs + +**Ad proposal** (Passent Media, 14-Jul-2026): 64,000 monthly on-boardings, 6-minute average +journey, 24 fifteen-second slots, 1,536,000 monthly impressions at an assumed 65% blended +fill. Three revenue lines — TransitAds.co local at $12,000/mo, programmatic ad-floor at +$2,765/mo ($12.00 CPM, 15% fill), national direct buy at $7,373/mo ($24.00 CPM, 20% fill). +**Gross total $22,138/mo, $265,651/yr.** A 2028 LA Games block worth $334,200 over 2.5 +months is captured but disabled. + +**Odoo S01027**: 17 money lines across Hardware, Installation, Professional Services, +Licensing & Support, and Optional Support. Quote total $84,334.45. + +**Pairing check**: the proposal's PROJECT/REF is "SNA JOHN WAYNE ARPT" and S01027 is billed +to John Wayne Airport-Orange County — same agency, same site. The proposal's impression math +assumes eleven onboard screens; S01027 carries eleven M27V vehicle displays. Both documents +describe an onboard/mobile deployment. This pair reconciles, so the model may be built. These +revenue figures belong to this deployment alone and must not be carried to any other quote. + +## Classification + +Four lines are recurring: `LIC-MPTV-Pro-Base` ($5,489/yr, $2,189/yr cost), +`API - Tripshot` ($1,125/yr, $0 cost), `LIC-ADV-FM` ($0 — the vehicle for the revenue share +itself, not a billable line), and `SUP-MP-FM` ($7,150/yr, $2,200/yr cost). Everything else +is one-time. + +MPTV Professional at $199/unit/year across 11 units is $182.42/month — the figure Andy +thinks of as "roughly $20 per controller per month." + +Two lines carry zero margin legitimately: `DBE-Dispatch` ($4,000) and `PS-Travel` ($4,000) +are pass-throughs at full cost. Several hardware and cabling lines carry 100% margin +because no standard cost is set in Odoo — worth flagging, since it makes COGS optimistic. + +## Expected outputs + +| Figure | Value | +|---|---| +| One-time COGS target (yellow) | $45,365.01 | +| One-time sale price target (orange) | $70,570.45 | +| One-time MSRP target (green) | $87,857.00 | +| Recurring lines, annual net | $13,764.00 | +| Recurring cost carried monthly | $365.75/mo | +| Blended discount on one-time scope | 19.7% | + +Cross-check: $70,570.45 one-time + $13,764.00 recurring = $84,334.45, the printed quote +total. + +With a 12-month ramp starting at 25%, a projection start of 2027-02, and 12% money: + +**Model 2A — MPM financed (MPM 30 / Passent 30 / Reseller 10 / End User 30)** + +Principal $45,365.01 at 12% APR, retired in month 13 with $3,888.81 of interest paid. No +negative amortization: MPM's month-1 share of $1,660 covers the $454 of first-month +interest comfortably. + +| Milestone | Target | Reached | +|---|---|---| +| COGS | $45,365.01 | month 13 | +| Sale price | $70,570.45 | month 17 | +| MSRP | $87,857.00 | month 20 | + +60-month distribution: MPM $368,598, Passent $368,598, Reseller $122,866, End User $368,598. + +**Model 2B — same split, revenue only.** Identical distribution figures, no targets, no cost +basis sheet. The check that matters is that nothing in this file discloses margin. + +**Model 2C — customer financed (MPM 5 / Reseller 2.5 / Passent 22.5 / End User 70)** + +60-month distribution: MPM $61,433, Reseller $30,716, Passent $276,448, End User $860,061. +The End User's 70% share, net of the $1,147/month they pay for licensing at invoiced price, +recovers the $87,857 MSRP they paid in **month 11**. + +## How to read it + +Both structures work on this deal, and the interesting comparison is what MPM trades away. +Financing costs $45,365 of cash for thirteen months plus $3,889 of interest, and returns +$368,598 over five years. Selling outright books the hardware immediately and returns +$61,433 — a $307,165 difference for capital that is fully recovered by month 13. On these +assumptions financing is clearly the better use of the money, which is precisely why the +assumptions deserve scrutiny rather than celebration. + +Everything rests on a 65% fill rate the proposal itself warns may not hold early. Halving +`monthly_gross` is the stress test worth running: COGS recovery slips from month 13 to 23, +MSRP from month 20 to 38, and interest paid rises from $3,889 to $6,696. More telling is the +first month, where MPM's net of $464 barely clears the $454 of accruing interest. The deal +does not tip into negative amortization, but it comes within ten dollars a month of doing +so — meaning a slower ramp, a deeper fill miss, or a higher rate would. If a deal ever does +tip, the script flags it in red on the Summary; treat that as a reason to renegotiate the +share or the rate, not a cosmetic warning.